Shunya.Trade Market Research Desk — Forex Pre-Market Analysis
Opening Bell Playbook: EURUSD (1.11769) Navigates the Equilibrium Zone Across 6 Tracked Assets
Research Desk Pre-Market Briefing — Forex Session Gameplan
The CFD forex complex opens the London window with a balanced two-way rotational lean. Full technical scan below. Across the 6 instruments on our desk radar today, 1 hold bullish structure while 1 trade under bearish distribution. Benchmark bellwether EURUSD opens the session near 1.11769 (-0.05%) inside the Premium Zone, while USDJPY (+0.10%) and AUDUSD (-0.07%) mark the widest overnight dispersion across the board.
Desk Gameplan for Today's Session: Rather than reacting to opening-bell noise, our focus is on how price behaves when it tests the unmitigated Bullish Order Blocks (+OB) and Bearish Supply Walls (-OB) mapped on each card below. Currently, 1 of 6 assets sit below their 50% Equilibrium baseline (Discount pricing), where institutional buyers historically step in to defend structure once a lower-timeframe Change of Character (CHoCH) confirms.
Volatility Index — CBOE VIX
19.4% Moderate
EUR/USD
Neutral1.11769
-0.05%
Intraday
Bearish
Daily
Bearish
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.11927
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.11095
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.12759
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Desk tracking flags bearish displacement on EUR/USD at 1.11769 (-0.05%); the recent CHoCH keeps sellers in control across the Premium regime (1.11927 midpoint). Institutional sellers remain positioned across the 1.12759 -OB supply shelf, while the next structural support rests near 1.11095. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.12759 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.12503 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.11403 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.11095
Resistance1.12759
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.12279
50-day SMA1.13901
100-day SMA1.14329
200-day SMA1.15601
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 53.0 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.11769; midline 1.12012.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.11769
Stop Loss
1.11403
Take Profit
1.12503
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
GBP/USD
Neutral1.33905
+0.09%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.32861
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.31385
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.34336
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Order-flow structure on GBP/USD (1.33905, +0.09%) leans offered after a CHoCH, with rallies facing institutional supply relative to the 1.32861 equilibrium baseline. Institutional sellers remain positioned across the 1.34336 -OB supply shelf, while the next structural support rests near 1.31385. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.34336 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.34892 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.33411 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.31385
Resistance1.34336
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.33331
50-day SMA1.33815
100-day SMA1.33884
200-day SMA1.34292
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 68.6 — Bullish momentum above equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.33905; midline 1.33042.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.33905
Stop Loss
1.33411
Take Profit
1.34892
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
USD/JPY
Neutral157.963
+0.10%
Intraday
Bullish
Daily
Bullish
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline157.519
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)156.096
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)158.942
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
USD/JPY (157.963, +0.10%) trades under defensive institutional distribution following a CHoCH, positioned in the Premium zone (0.0% from the 157.519 50% Equilibrium pivot). Institutional sellers remain positioned across the 158.942 -OB supply shelf, while the next structural support rests near 156.096. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 158.942 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 159.074 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 157.407 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support156.096
Resistance158.942
Moving Averages
21-day SMA157.754
50-day SMA157.430
100-day SMA159.222
200-day SMA158.550
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 > EMA 21 and SMA 20 > SMA 50 — short and medium-term bullish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 45.1 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 157.963; midline 157.935.
Trade Setup
Entry
157.963
Stop Loss
157.407
Take Profit
159.074
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
AUD/USD
Bearish0.70220
-0.07%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.69816
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.68954
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.70678
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
On the AUD/USD tape (0.70220, -0.07%), overhead supply continues to cap relief bounces after a CHoCH around the 0.69816 50% Equilibrium threshold. Institutional sellers remain positioned across the 0.70678 -OB supply shelf, while the next structural support rests near 0.68954. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.70678 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.68020 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.72018 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.68954
Resistance0.70678
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.70151
50-day SMA0.70663
100-day SMA0.70330
200-day SMA0.70574
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 60.6 — Bullish momentum above equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.70220; midline 0.69946.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.70325
Stop Loss
0.72018
Take Profit
0.68020
Risk / Reward
1:1.4
Sell
USD/CAD
Bullish1.39852
-0.01%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Discount Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureBOS (Break of Structure)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.41203
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.39416
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.42989
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Institutional structure on USD/CAD remains upward-biased at 1.39852 (-0.01%); recent BOS displacement confirms buyers are absorbing supply inside the Discount regime (1.41203 midpoint). Footprint mapping highlights institutional demand resting at the 1.39416 +OB zone, with the next major -OB supply barrier located at 1.42989. With internal Fair Value Gaps largely balanced, execution focuses directly on the 1.39416 demand shelf. Pre-Market Gameplan: Look for continuation toward the 1.44450 liquidity target as long as price holds above the 1.34862 structural invalidation level.
Support / Resistance
Support1.39416
Resistance1.42989
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.40717
50-day SMA1.40295
100-day SMA1.40465
200-day SMA1.38873
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 12.2 — Oversold. Potential mean-reversion developing.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.39852; midline 1.41244.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.39377
Stop Loss
1.34862
Take Profit
1.44450
Risk / Reward
1:1.1
Buy
USD/CHF
Neutral0.82409
+0.06%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.82932
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.81917
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.83948
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Order-flow structure on USD/CHF (0.82409, +0.06%) leans offered after a CHoCH, with rallies facing institutional supply relative to the 0.82932 equilibrium baseline. Institutional sellers remain positioned across the 0.83948 -OB supply shelf, while the next structural support rests near 0.81917. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.83948 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.83108 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.82059 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.81917
Resistance0.83948
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.82618
50-day SMA0.82166
100-day SMA0.81514
200-day SMA0.79920
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 35.8 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.82409; midline 0.82798.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.82409
Stop Loss
0.82059
Take Profit
0.83108
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
Market Search Previews
Research Desk Takeaway
Cross-reference DXY technical levels with CFTC commitment of traders positioning for medium-term directional bias in major pairs.
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Explore Shunya.Trade →⚠ Disclaimer: This analysis is prepared by the Shunya.Trade Market Research Desk for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.