Shunya.Trade Market Research Desk — Forex Pre-Market Analysis
Morning Market Map: Two-Way Rotational Flow Led by USDCHF (-0.7%) with EURUSD Anchored Near 1.11919
Research Desk Pre-Market Briefing — Forex Session Gameplan
The CFD forex complex opens the London window with a balanced two-way rotational lean. Full technical scan below. Across the 6 instruments on our desk radar today, 1 hold bullish structure while 1 trade under bearish distribution. Benchmark bellwether EURUSD opens the session near 1.11919 (+0.31%) inside the Premium Zone, while EURUSD (+0.31%) and USDCHF (-0.74%) mark the widest overnight dispersion across the board.
Desk Gameplan for Today's Session: Rather than reacting to opening-bell noise, our focus is on how price behaves when it tests the unmitigated Bullish Order Blocks (+OB) and Bearish Supply Walls (-OB) mapped on each card below. Currently, 1 of 6 assets sit below their 50% Equilibrium baseline (Discount pricing), where institutional buyers historically step in to defend structure once a lower-timeframe Change of Character (CHoCH) confirms.
Volatility Index — CBOE VIX
21.1% High
EUR/USD
Neutral1.11919
+0.31%
Intraday
Bearish
Daily
Bearish
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.11898
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.11095
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.12701
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
On the EUR/USD tape (1.11919, +0.31%), overhead supply continues to cap relief bounces after a CHoCH around the 1.11898 50% Equilibrium threshold. Any intraday retest into the 1.12701 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 1.11095 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.12701 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.12678 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.11540 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.11095
Resistance1.12701
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.12230
50-day SMA1.13802
100-day SMA1.14286
200-day SMA1.15566
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 47.8 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.11919; midline 1.11989.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.11919
Stop Loss
1.11540
Take Profit
1.12678
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
GBP/USD
Neutral1.34063
+0.15%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.32942
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.31385
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.34499
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Desk tracking flags bearish displacement on GBP/USD at 1.34063 (+0.15%); the recent CHoCH keeps sellers in control across the Premium regime (1.32942 midpoint). Any intraday retest into the 1.34499 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 1.31385 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.34499 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.35069 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.33560 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.31385
Resistance1.34499
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.33394
50-day SMA1.33768
100-day SMA1.33883
200-day SMA1.34278
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 66.4 — Bullish momentum above equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.34063; midline 1.33134.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.34063
Stop Loss
1.33560
Take Profit
1.35069
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
USD/JPY
Neutral157.912
+0.15%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline157.519
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)156.096
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)158.942
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Order-flow structure on USD/JPY (157.912, +0.15%) leans offered after a CHoCH, with rallies facing institutional supply relative to the 157.519 equilibrium baseline. Any intraday retest into the 158.942 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 156.096 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 158.942 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 158.998 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 157.369 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support156.096
Resistance158.942
Moving Averages
21-day SMA157.744
50-day SMA157.400
100-day SMA159.196
200-day SMA158.567
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 > EMA 21 and SMA 20 > SMA 50 — short and medium-term bullish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 46.4 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 157.912; midline 157.918.
Trade Setup
Entry
157.912
Stop Loss
157.369
Take Profit
158.998
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
AUD/USD
Bearish0.69798
-0.70%
Intraday
Bearish
Daily
Bearish
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.69816
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.68954
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.70678
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
AUD/USD (0.69798, -0.70%) trades under defensive institutional distribution following a CHoCH, positioned in the Premium zone (0.0% from the 0.69816 50% Equilibrium pivot). Any intraday retest into the 0.70678 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 0.68954 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.70678 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.68020 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.72712 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.68954
Resistance0.70678
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.70124
50-day SMA0.70630
100-day SMA0.70321
200-day SMA0.70577
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 49.2 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.69798; midline 0.69956.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.69839
Stop Loss
0.72712
Take Profit
0.68020
Risk / Reward
1:0.6
Sell
USD/CAD
Bullish1.39818
+0.08%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Discount Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureBOS (Break of Structure)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.41203
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.39416
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.42989
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
On the USD/CAD tape (1.39818, +0.08%), structural momentum favors the bid side after a clean BOS, keeping the session anchored around the 1.41203 50% Equilibrium level. Pullbacks into the 1.39416 Bullish Order Block are being monitored for absorption, while 1.42989 marks the overhead liquidity ceiling. With internal Fair Value Gaps largely balanced, execution focuses directly on the 1.39416 demand shelf. Pre-Market Gameplan: Look for continuation toward the 1.44450 liquidity target as long as price holds above the 1.34862 structural invalidation level.
Support / Resistance
Support1.39416
Resistance1.42989
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.40623
50-day SMA1.40320
100-day SMA1.40462
200-day SMA1.38886
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 16.7 — Oversold. Potential mean-reversion developing.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.39818; midline 1.41096.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.38891
Stop Loss
1.34862
Take Profit
1.44450
Risk / Reward
1:1.4
Buy
USD/CHF
Neutral0.81863
-0.74%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.82853
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.81759
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.83948
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Desk tracking flags bearish displacement on USD/CHF at 0.81863 (-0.74%); the recent CHoCH keeps sellers in control across the Premium regime (0.82853 midpoint). Any intraday retest into the 0.83948 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 0.81759 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.83948 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.82582 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.81503 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.81759
Resistance0.83948
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.82555
50-day SMA0.82200
100-day SMA0.81539
200-day SMA0.79941
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 32.7 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.81863; midline 0.82739.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.81863
Stop Loss
0.81503
Take Profit
0.82582
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
Market Search Previews
Research Desk Takeaway
Cross-reference DXY technical levels with CFTC commitment of traders positioning for medium-term directional bias in major pairs.
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Explore Shunya.Trade →⚠ Disclaimer: This analysis is prepared by the Shunya.Trade Market Research Desk for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.