Shunya.Trade Market Research Desk — Forex Pre-Market Analysis
Opening Bell Playbook: EURUSD (1.12524) Navigates the Equilibrium Zone Across 6 Tracked Assets
Research Desk Pre-Market Briefing — Forex Session Gameplan
FX spot and CFD desks are positioned balanced two-way rotational into the London open — the highest-liquidity window of the day. Across the 6 instruments on our desk radar today, 1 hold bullish structure while 1 trade under bearish distribution. Benchmark bellwether EURUSD opens the session near 1.12524 (+0.54%) inside the Premium Zone, while EURUSD (+0.54%) and AUDUSD (-0.50%) mark the widest overnight dispersion across the board.
Desk Gameplan for Today's Session: Rather than reacting to opening-bell noise, our focus is on how price behaves when it tests the unmitigated Bullish Order Blocks (+OB) and Bearish Supply Walls (-OB) mapped on each card below. Currently, 1 of 6 assets sit below their 50% Equilibrium baseline (Discount pricing), where institutional buyers historically step in to defend structure once a lower-timeframe Change of Character (CHoCH) confirms.
Volatility Index — CBOE VIX
20.8% High
EUR/USD
Neutral1.12524
+0.54%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.11898
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.11095
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.12701
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
EUR/USD (1.12524, +0.54%) trades under defensive institutional distribution following a CHoCH, positioned in the Premium zone (0.0% from the 1.11898 50% Equilibrium pivot). Active Bearish Order Block (-OB) supply is defending 1.12701, leaving downside liquidity exposed toward the 1.11095 demand zone. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.12701 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.13238 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.12167 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.11095
Resistance1.12701
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.12256
50-day SMA1.13717
100-day SMA1.14251
200-day SMA1.15528
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 58.5 — Bullish momentum above equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.12524; midline 1.11989.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.12524
Stop Loss
1.12167
Take Profit
1.13238
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
GBP/USD
Neutral1.34691
+0.44%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.33090
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.31385
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.34795
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
On the GBP/USD tape (1.34691, +0.44%), overhead supply continues to cap relief bounces after a CHoCH around the 1.33090 50% Equilibrium threshold. Active Bearish Order Block (-OB) supply is defending 1.34795, leaving downside liquidity exposed toward the 1.31385 demand zone. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.34795 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.35618 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.34227 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.31385
Resistance1.34795
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.33514
50-day SMA1.33733
100-day SMA1.33887
200-day SMA1.34261
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 74.5 — Overbought. Momentum elevated; watch for pullback.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.34691; midline 1.33237.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.34691
Stop Loss
1.34227
Take Profit
1.35618
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
USD/JPY
Neutral157.588
-0.21%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline157.519
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)156.096
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)158.942
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Desk tracking flags bearish displacement on USD/JPY at 157.588 (-0.21%); the recent CHoCH keeps sellers in control across the Premium regime (157.519 midpoint). Active Bearish Order Block (-OB) supply is defending 158.942, leaving downside liquidity exposed toward the 156.096 demand zone. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 158.942 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 158.681 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 157.041 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support156.096
Resistance158.942
Moving Averages
21-day SMA157.730
50-day SMA157.367
100-day SMA159.167
200-day SMA158.592
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 46.7 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 157.588; midline 157.883.
Trade Setup
Entry
157.588
Stop Loss
157.041
Take Profit
158.681
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
AUD/USD
Bearish0.69652
-0.50%
Intraday
Bearish
Daily
Bearish
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.69816
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.68954
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.70678
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Order-flow structure on AUD/USD (0.69652, -0.50%) leans offered after a CHoCH, with rallies facing institutional supply relative to the 0.69816 equilibrium baseline. Active Bearish Order Block (-OB) supply is defending 0.70678, leaving downside liquidity exposed toward the 0.68954 demand zone. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.70678 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.68020 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.72018 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.68954
Resistance0.70678
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.70098
50-day SMA0.70594
100-day SMA0.70313
200-day SMA0.70577
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 48.0 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.69652; midline 0.69958.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.70347
Stop Loss
0.72018
Take Profit
0.68020
Risk / Reward
1:1.4
Sell
USD/CAD
Bullish1.39669
-0.11%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Discount Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureBOS (Break of Structure)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.41203
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.39416
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.42989
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
USD/CAD (1.39669, -0.11%) maintains a constructive institutional footprint after confirming a BOS, with price operating in the Discount zone (0.0% from the 1.41203 50% Equilibrium baseline). Primary Bullish Order Block (+OB) demand is stacked between 1.39416, whereas overhead supply sits near 1.42989. With internal Fair Value Gaps largely balanced, execution focuses directly on the 1.39416 demand shelf. Pre-Market Gameplan: Look for continuation toward the 1.44450 liquidity target as long as price holds above the 1.34862 structural invalidation level.
Support / Resistance
Support1.39416
Resistance1.42989
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.40537
50-day SMA1.40346
100-day SMA1.40459
200-day SMA1.38905
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 16.4 — Oversold. Potential mean-reversion developing.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.39669; midline 1.40974.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.39155
Stop Loss
1.34862
Take Profit
1.44450
Risk / Reward
1:1.2
Buy
USD/CHF
Neutral0.81448
-0.48%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.82610
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.81272
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.83948
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
On the USD/CHF tape (0.81448, -0.48%), overhead supply continues to cap relief bounces after a CHoCH around the 0.82610 50% Equilibrium threshold. Active Bearish Order Block (-OB) supply is defending 0.83948, leaving downside liquidity exposed toward the 0.81272 demand zone. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.83948 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.82181 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.81081 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.81272
Resistance0.83948
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.82453
50-day SMA0.82225
100-day SMA0.81560
200-day SMA0.79966
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 30.4 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.81448; midline 0.82649.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.81448
Stop Loss
0.81081
Take Profit
0.82181
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
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