Shunya.Trade Market Research Desk — Forex Pre-Market Analysis
Morning Market Map: Bullish Order Flow Led by AUDUSD (-1.5%) with EURUSD Anchored Near 1.12007
Research Desk Pre-Market Briefing — Forex Session Gameplan
Six major pairs enter the European session with constructive bullish directional cues. Pip-level analysis follows. Across the 6 instruments on our desk radar today, 1 hold bullish structure while 0 trade under bearish distribution. Benchmark bellwether EURUSD opens the session near 1.12007 (-0.30%) inside the Premium Zone, while USDCAD (+0.47%) and AUDUSD (-1.48%) mark the widest overnight dispersion across the board.
Desk Gameplan for Today's Session: Rather than reacting to opening-bell noise, our focus is on how price behaves when it tests the unmitigated Bullish Order Blocks (+OB) and Bearish Supply Walls (-OB) mapped on each card below. Currently, 1 of 6 assets sit below their 50% Equilibrium baseline (Discount pricing), where institutional buyers historically step in to defend structure once a lower-timeframe Change of Character (CHoCH) confirms.
Volatility Index — CBOE VIX
28.2% High
EUR/USD
Neutral1.12007
-0.30%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.11924
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.11095
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.12752
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Desk tracking flags bearish displacement on EUR/USD at 1.12007 (-0.30%); the recent CHoCH keeps sellers in control across the Premium regime (1.11924 midpoint). Any intraday retest into the 1.12752 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 1.11095 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.12752 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.12739 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.11641 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.11095
Resistance1.12752
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.12208
50-day SMA1.13533
100-day SMA1.14193
200-day SMA1.15450
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 46.2 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.12007; midline 1.11977.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.12007
Stop Loss
1.11641
Take Profit
1.12739
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
GBP/USD
Neutral1.34322
-0.33%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.33205
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.31385
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.35024
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Order-flow structure on GBP/USD (1.34322, -0.33%) leans offered after a CHoCH, with rallies facing institutional supply relative to the 1.33205 equilibrium baseline. Any intraday retest into the 1.35024 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 1.31385 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.35024 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.35221 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.33873 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.31385
Resistance1.35024
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.33665
50-day SMA1.33669
100-day SMA1.33924
200-day SMA1.34223
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 61.1 — Bullish momentum above equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.34322; midline 1.33452.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.34322
Stop Loss
1.33873
Take Profit
1.35221
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
USD/JPY
Neutral157.878
-0.30%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline157.519
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)156.096
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)158.942
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
USD/JPY (157.878, -0.30%) trades under defensive institutional distribution following a CHoCH, positioned in the Premium zone (0.0% from the 157.519 50% Equilibrium pivot). Any intraday retest into the 158.942 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 156.096 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 158.942 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 159.036 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 157.299 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support156.096
Resistance158.942
Moving Averages
21-day SMA157.862
50-day SMA157.338
100-day SMA159.119
200-day SMA158.647
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 > EMA 21 and SMA 20 > SMA 50 — short and medium-term bullish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 50.6 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 157.878; midline 157.933.
Trade Setup
Entry
157.878
Stop Loss
157.299
Take Profit
159.036
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
AUD/USD
Neutral0.69008
-1.48%
Intraday
Bearish
Daily
Bearish
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.69815
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.68951
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.70678
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
On the AUD/USD tape (0.69008, -1.48%), overhead supply continues to cap relief bounces after a CHoCH around the 0.69815 50% Equilibrium threshold. Any intraday retest into the 0.70678 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 0.68951 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.70678 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.69586 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.68719 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.68951
Resistance0.70678
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.69997
50-day SMA0.70500
100-day SMA0.70301
200-day SMA0.70568
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 40.0 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.69008; midline 0.69950.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.69008
Stop Loss
0.68719
Take Profit
0.69586
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
USD/CAD
Bullish1.40370
+0.47%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Discount Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureBOS (Break of Structure)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.41146
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.39302
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.42989
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Institutional structure on USD/CAD remains upward-biased at 1.40370 (+0.47%); recent BOS displacement confirms buyers are absorbing supply inside the Discount regime (1.41146 midpoint). Pullbacks into the 1.39302 Bullish Order Block are being monitored for absorption, while 1.42989 marks the overhead liquidity ceiling. With internal Fair Value Gaps largely balanced, execution focuses directly on the 1.39302 demand shelf. Pre-Market Gameplan: Look for continuation toward the 1.44450 liquidity target as long as price holds above the 1.34862 structural invalidation level.
Support / Resistance
Support1.39302
Resistance1.42989
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.40483
50-day SMA1.40410
100-day SMA1.40440
200-day SMA1.38956
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 39.1 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.40370; midline 1.40757.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.38881
Stop Loss
1.34862
Take Profit
1.44450
Risk / Reward
1:1.4
Buy
USD/CHF
Neutral0.81710
+0.08%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.82618
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.81289
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.83948
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Order-flow structure on USD/CHF (0.81710, +0.08%) leans offered after a CHoCH, with rallies facing institutional supply relative to the 0.82618 equilibrium baseline. Any intraday retest into the 0.83948 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 0.81289 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.83948 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.82425 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.81352 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.81289
Resistance0.83948
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.82355
50-day SMA0.82285
100-day SMA0.81594
200-day SMA0.80020
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 40.8 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.81710; midline 0.82519.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.81710
Stop Loss
0.81352
Take Profit
0.82425
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
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