Shunya.Trade Market Research Desk — Forex Pre-Market Analysis
Where Smart Money Is Positioned Today: EURUSD (1.11607), USDCAD (+0.6%) & Institutional Levels
Research Desk Pre-Market Briefing — Forex Session Gameplan
As the European session begins, the six major pairs carry a constructive bullish technical posture from the Asian handover. Across the 6 instruments on our desk radar today, 1 hold bullish structure while 0 trade under bearish distribution. Benchmark bellwether EURUSD opens the session near 1.11607 (-0.60%) inside the Premium Zone, while USDCAD (+0.64%) and EURUSD (-0.60%) mark the widest overnight dispersion across the board.
Desk Gameplan for Today's Session: Rather than reacting to opening-bell noise, our focus is on how price behaves when it tests the unmitigated Bullish Order Blocks (+OB) and Bearish Supply Walls (-OB) mapped on each card below. Currently, 1 of 6 assets sit below their 50% Equilibrium baseline (Discount pricing), where institutional buyers historically step in to defend structure once a lower-timeframe Change of Character (CHoCH) confirms.
Volatility Index — CBOE VIX
25.6% High
EUR/USD
Neutral1.11607
-0.60%
Intraday
Bearish
Daily
Bearish
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.11924
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.11095
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.12752
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Order-flow structure on EUR/USD (1.11607, -0.60%) leans offered after a CHoCH, with rallies facing institutional supply relative to the 1.11924 equilibrium baseline. Any intraday retest into the 1.12752 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 1.11095 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.12752 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.12385 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.11218 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.11095
Resistance1.12752
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.12176
50-day SMA1.13453
100-day SMA1.14166
200-day SMA1.15417
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 42.2 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.11607; midline 1.11968.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.11607
Stop Loss
1.11218
Take Profit
1.12385
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
GBP/USD
Neutral1.33769
-0.59%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.33205
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.31385
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.35024
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
GBP/USD (1.33769, -0.59%) trades under defensive institutional distribution following a CHoCH, positioned in the Premium zone (0.0% from the 1.33205 50% Equilibrium pivot). Any intraday retest into the 1.35024 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 1.31385 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.35024 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.34722 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.33292 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.31385
Resistance1.35024
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.33695
50-day SMA1.33641
100-day SMA1.33944
200-day SMA1.34209
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 57.4 — Bullish momentum above equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.33769; midline 1.33531.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.33769
Stop Loss
1.33292
Take Profit
1.34722
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
USD/JPY
Neutral158.296
+0.51%
Intraday
Bullish
Daily
Bullish
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline157.519
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)156.096
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)158.942
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
On the USD/JPY tape (158.296, +0.51%), overhead supply continues to cap relief bounces after a CHoCH around the 157.519 50% Equilibrium threshold. Any intraday retest into the 158.942 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 156.096 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 158.942 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 159.481 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 157.703 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support156.096
Resistance158.942
Moving Averages
21-day SMA157.870
50-day SMA157.294
100-day SMA159.084
200-day SMA158.660
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 > EMA 21 and SMA 20 > SMA 50 — short and medium-term bullish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 48.2 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 158.296; midline 157.918.
Trade Setup
Entry
158.296
Stop Loss
157.703
Take Profit
159.481
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
AUD/USD
Neutral0.68970
-0.49%
Intraday
Bearish
Daily
Bearish
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.69614
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.68550
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.70678
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Desk tracking flags bearish displacement on AUD/USD at 0.68970 (-0.49%); the recent CHoCH keeps sellers in control across the Premium regime (0.69614 midpoint). Any intraday retest into the 0.70678 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 0.68550 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.70678 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.69612 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.68649 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.68550
Resistance0.70678
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.69929
50-day SMA0.70453
100-day SMA0.70293
200-day SMA0.70567
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 37.8 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.68970; midline 0.69921.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.68970
Stop Loss
0.68649
Take Profit
0.69612
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
USD/CAD
Bullish1.41075
+0.64%
Intraday
Bullish
Daily
Bullish
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Discount Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureBOS (Break of Structure)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.41146
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.39302
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.42989
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Desk order-flow tracking shows USD/CAD holding firm at 1.41075 (+0.64%) following a BOS, while real-money bids continue to defend value relative to the 1.41146 equilibrium pivot. Pullbacks into the 1.39302 Bullish Order Block are being monitored for absorption, while 1.42989 marks the overhead liquidity ceiling. With internal Fair Value Gaps largely balanced, execution focuses directly on the 1.39302 demand shelf. Pre-Market Gameplan: Look for continuation toward the 1.44450 liquidity target as long as price holds above the 1.37499 structural invalidation level.
Support / Resistance
Support1.39302
Resistance1.42989
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.40520
50-day SMA1.40448
100-day SMA1.40431
200-day SMA1.38978
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 50.2 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.41075; midline 1.40671.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.40993
Stop Loss
1.37499
Take Profit
1.44450
Risk / Reward
1:1.0
Buy
USD/CHF
Neutral0.82058
+0.64%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.82618
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.81289
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.83948
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
USD/CHF (0.82058, +0.64%) trades under defensive institutional distribution following a CHoCH, positioned in the Premium zone (0.0% from the 0.82618 50% Equilibrium pivot). Any intraday retest into the 0.83948 Bearish Order Block faces overhead distribution, with 0.81289 acting as the primary downside magnet. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.83948 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.82796 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.81689 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.81289
Resistance0.83948
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.82314
50-day SMA0.82305
100-day SMA0.81605
200-day SMA0.80043
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 41.9 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.82058; midline 0.82464.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.82058
Stop Loss
0.81689
Take Profit
0.82796
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
Market Search Previews
Research Desk Takeaway
Cross-reference DXY technical levels with CFTC commitment of traders positioning for medium-term directional bias in major pairs.
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Explore Shunya.Trade →⚠ Disclaimer: This analysis is prepared by the Shunya.Trade Market Research Desk for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.