Shunya.Trade Market Research Desk — Forex Pre-Market Analysis
FX Institutional Desk Morning Note: EURUSD (1.12284) & AUDUSD (+0.8%) Set the Pre-Market Structure
Research Desk Pre-Market Briefing — Forex Session Gameplan
The pre-London scan across major CFD pairs reads balanced two-way rotational. European session levels and carry context below. Across the 6 instruments on our desk radar today, 2 hold bullish structure while 2 trade under bearish distribution. Benchmark bellwether EURUSD opens the session near 1.12284 (+0.73%) inside the Premium Zone, while AUDUSD (+0.79%) and USDJPY (-0.22%) mark the widest overnight dispersion across the board.
Desk Gameplan for Today's Session: Rather than reacting to opening-bell noise, our focus is on how price behaves when it tests the unmitigated Bullish Order Blocks (+OB) and Bearish Supply Walls (-OB) mapped on each card below. Currently, 2 of 6 assets sit below their 50% Equilibrium baseline (Discount pricing), where institutional buyers historically step in to defend structure once a lower-timeframe Change of Character (CHoCH) confirms.
Volatility Index — CBOE VIX
19.9% Moderate
EUR/USD
Bearish1.12284
+0.73%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.11924
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.11095
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.12752
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Desk tracking flags bearish displacement on EUR/USD at 1.12284 (+0.73%); the recent CHoCH keeps sellers in control across the Premium regime (1.11924 midpoint). Active Bearish Order Block (-OB) supply is defending 1.12752, leaving downside liquidity exposed toward the 1.11095 demand zone. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.12752 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.09610 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.15545 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.11095
Resistance1.12752
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.12174
50-day SMA1.13372
100-day SMA1.14144
200-day SMA1.15388
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 50.2 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.12284; midline 1.11996.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.12426
Stop Loss
1.15545
Take Profit
1.09610
Risk / Reward
1:0.9
Sell
GBP/USD
Bullish1.34468
+0.65%
Intraday
Bullish
Daily
Bullish
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Discount Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureBOS (Break of Structure)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.33205
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.31385
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.35024
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Desk order-flow tracking shows GBP/USD holding firm at 1.34468 (+0.65%) following a BOS, while real-money bids continue to defend value relative to the 1.33205 equilibrium pivot. Primary Bullish Order Block (+OB) demand is stacked between 1.31385, whereas overhead supply sits near 1.35024. With internal Fair Value Gaps largely balanced, execution focuses directly on the 1.31385 demand shelf. Pre-Market Gameplan: Look for continuation toward the 1.98700 liquidity target as long as price holds above the 1.30365 structural invalidation level.
Support / Resistance
Support1.31385
Resistance1.35024
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.33751
50-day SMA1.33617
100-day SMA1.33962
200-day SMA1.34197
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 > EMA 21 and SMA 20 > SMA 50 — short and medium-term bullish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 57.3 — Bullish momentum above equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.34468; midline 1.33642.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.34222
Stop Loss
1.30365
Take Profit
1.98700
Risk / Reward
1:16.7
Buy
USD/JPY
Neutral157.943
-0.22%
Intraday
Bullish
Daily
Bullish
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline157.519
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)156.096
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)158.942
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
USD/JPY (157.943, -0.22%) trades under defensive institutional distribution following a CHoCH, positioned in the Premium zone (0.0% from the 157.519 50% Equilibrium pivot). Active Bearish Order Block (-OB) supply is defending 158.942, leaving downside liquidity exposed toward the 156.096 demand zone. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 158.942 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 159.135 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 157.347 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support156.096
Resistance158.942
Moving Averages
21-day SMA157.876
50-day SMA157.257
100-day SMA159.048
200-day SMA158.673
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 > EMA 21 and SMA 20 > SMA 50 — short and medium-term bullish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 47.5 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 157.943; midline 157.889.
Trade Setup
Entry
157.943
Stop Loss
157.347
Take Profit
159.135
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
AUD/USD
Bearish0.69233
+0.79%
Intraday
Bearish
Daily
Bearish
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.69614
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.68550
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.70678
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
On the AUD/USD tape (0.69233, +0.79%), overhead supply continues to cap relief bounces after a CHoCH around the 0.69614 50% Equilibrium threshold. Active Bearish Order Block (-OB) supply is defending 0.70678, leaving downside liquidity exposed toward the 0.68550 demand zone. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.70678 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.67510 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.70973 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.68550
Resistance0.70678
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.69842
50-day SMA0.70397
100-day SMA0.70283
200-day SMA0.70564
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 39.9 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.69233; midline 0.69891.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.70267
Stop Loss
0.70973
Take Profit
0.67510
Risk / Reward
1:3.9
Sell
USD/CAD
Bullish1.41180
-0.00%
Intraday
Bullish
Daily
Bullish
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Discount Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureBOS (Break of Structure)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.41146
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.39302
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.42989
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Institutional structure on USD/CAD remains upward-biased at 1.41180 (-0.00%); recent BOS displacement confirms buyers are absorbing supply inside the Discount regime (1.41146 midpoint). Primary Bullish Order Block (+OB) demand is stacked between 1.39302, whereas overhead supply sits near 1.42989. With internal Fair Value Gaps largely balanced, execution focuses directly on the 1.39302 demand shelf. Pre-Market Gameplan: Look for continuation toward the 1.44450 liquidity target as long as price holds above the 1.37499 structural invalidation level.
Support / Resistance
Support1.39302
Resistance1.42989
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.40590
50-day SMA1.40504
100-day SMA1.40429
200-day SMA1.39001
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 56.4 — Bullish momentum above equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.41180; midline 1.40595.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.41061
Stop Loss
1.37499
Take Profit
1.44450
Risk / Reward
1:1.0
Buy
USD/CHF
Neutral0.81940
-0.02%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.82618
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.81289
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.83948
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Order-flow structure on USD/CHF (0.81940, -0.02%) leans offered after a CHoCH, with rallies facing institutional supply relative to the 0.82618 equilibrium baseline. Active Bearish Order Block (-OB) supply is defending 0.83948, leaving downside liquidity exposed toward the 0.81289 demand zone. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.83948 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.82702 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.81559 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.81289
Resistance0.83948
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.82271
50-day SMA0.82325
100-day SMA0.81614
200-day SMA0.80063
Moving Average Trends
Mixed MA positioning — no clear directional confluence.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 41.5 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.81940; midline 0.82385.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.81940
Stop Loss
0.81559
Take Profit
0.82702
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
Market Search Previews
Research Desk Takeaway
Cross-reference DXY technical levels with CFTC commitment of traders positioning for medium-term directional bias in major pairs.
Institutional Market Research
Get Pre-Market & Post-Market Research Notes Every Day
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) setups & Options Desk notes across NIFTY, S&P 500, DAX, Forex & Top 26 Cryptos — completely free.
Explore Shunya.Trade →⚠ Disclaimer: This analysis is prepared by the Shunya.Trade Market Research Desk for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.