Shunya.Trade Market Research Desk — Forex Pre-Market Analysis
Pre-Market Research Briefing: EURUSD at 1.11657 (-0.51%) — Defensive Supply Pressure & Key Order Blocks
Research Desk Pre-Market Briefing — Forex Session Gameplan
As the European session begins, the six major pairs carry a defensive supply-driven technical posture from the Asian handover. Across the 6 instruments on our desk radar today, 0 hold bullish structure while 1 trade under bearish distribution. Benchmark bellwether EURUSD opens the session near 1.11657 (-0.51%) inside the Premium Zone, while USDCHF (+0.80%) and GBPUSD (-0.72%) mark the widest overnight dispersion across the board.
Desk Gameplan for Today's Session: Rather than reacting to opening-bell noise, our focus is on how price behaves when it tests the unmitigated Bullish Order Blocks (+OB) and Bearish Supply Walls (-OB) mapped on each card below. Currently, 0 of 6 assets sit below their 50% Equilibrium baseline (Discount pricing), where institutional buyers historically step in to defend structure once a lower-timeframe Change of Character (CHoCH) confirms.
Volatility Index — CBOE VIX
19.5% Moderate
EUR/USD
Neutral1.11657
-0.51%
Intraday
Bearish
Daily
Bearish
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.11924
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.11095
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.12752
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
On the EUR/USD tape (1.11657, -0.51%), overhead supply continues to cap relief bounces after a CHoCH around the 1.11924 50% Equilibrium threshold. Institutional sellers remain positioned across the 1.12752 -OB supply shelf, while the next structural support rests near 1.11095. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.12752 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.12528 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.11222 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.11095
Resistance1.12752
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.12123
50-day SMA1.13285
100-day SMA1.14122
200-day SMA1.15355
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 42.8 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.11657; midline 1.11973.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.11657
Stop Loss
1.11222
Take Profit
1.12528
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
GBP/USD
Neutral1.33456
-0.72%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.33630
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.32237
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.35024
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Desk tracking flags bearish displacement on GBP/USD at 1.33456 (-0.72%); the recent CHoCH keeps sellers in control across the Premium regime (1.33630 midpoint). Institutional sellers remain positioned across the 1.35024 -OB supply shelf, while the next structural support rests near 1.32237. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.35024 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.34447 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.32961 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.32237
Resistance1.35024
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.33720
50-day SMA1.33582
100-day SMA1.33976
200-day SMA1.34179
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 > EMA 21 and SMA 20 > SMA 50 — short and medium-term bullish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 45.6 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.33456; midline 1.33683.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.33456
Stop Loss
1.32961
Take Profit
1.34447
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
USD/JPY
Neutral158.832
+0.54%
Intraday
Bullish
Daily
Bullish
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline157.527
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)156.096
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)158.959
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Order-flow structure on USD/JPY (158.832, +0.54%) leans offered after a CHoCH, with rallies facing institutional supply relative to the 157.527 equilibrium baseline. Institutional sellers remain positioned across the 158.959 -OB supply shelf, while the next structural support rests near 156.096. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 158.959 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 160.049 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 158.224 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support156.096
Resistance158.959
Moving Averages
21-day SMA157.966
50-day SMA157.231
100-day SMA159.021
200-day SMA158.688
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 > EMA 21 and SMA 20 > SMA 50 — short and medium-term bullish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 54.9 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 158.832; midline 157.917.
Trade Setup
Entry
158.832
Stop Loss
158.224
Take Profit
160.049
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
AUD/USD
Bearish0.68771
-0.64%
Intraday
Bearish
Daily
Bearish
Weekly
Bearish
Monthly
Bearish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.69563
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.68448
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.70678
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
AUD/USD (0.68771, -0.64%) trades under defensive institutional distribution following a CHoCH, positioned in the Premium zone (0.0% from the 0.69563 50% Equilibrium pivot). Institutional sellers remain positioned across the 0.70678 -OB supply shelf, while the next structural support rests near 0.68448. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.70678 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.67380 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.70963 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.68448
Resistance0.70678
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.69743
50-day SMA0.70343
100-day SMA0.70279
200-day SMA0.70557
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 32.3 — Bearish momentum below equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.68771; midline 0.69836.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.70257
Stop Loss
0.70963
Take Profit
0.67380
Risk / Reward
1:4.1
Sell
USD/CAD
Neutral1.42052
+0.61%
Intraday
Bullish
Daily
Bullish
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline1.40751
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)1.39302
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)1.42200
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
On the USD/CAD tape (1.42052, +0.61%), overhead supply continues to cap relief bounces after a CHoCH around the 1.40751 50% Equilibrium threshold. Institutional sellers remain positioned across the 1.42200 -OB supply shelf, while the next structural support rests near 1.39302. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 1.42200 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 1.42908 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 1.41624 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support1.39302
Resistance1.42200
Moving Averages
21-day SMA1.40723
50-day SMA1.40566
100-day SMA1.40428
200-day SMA1.39029
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 > EMA 21 and SMA 20 > SMA 50 — short and medium-term bullish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 67.4 — Bullish momentum above equilibrium.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 1.42052; midline 1.40590.
Trade Setup
Entry
1.42052
Stop Loss
1.41624
Take Profit
1.42908
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
USD/CHF
Neutral0.82610
+0.80%
Intraday
Neutral
Daily
Neutral
Weekly
Bullish
Monthly
Bullish
⚡ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Institutional Map
Premium Zone (0.0% from 50% Eq) Market StructureCHoCH (Change of Character)
50% Equilibrium Baseline0.82260
Bullish Order Block (+OB Demand)0.81289
Bearish Order Block (-OB Supply)0.83230
Fair Value Gap (FVG Imbalance)None Active
Liquidity Pools (EQH / EQL)Internal Liquidity
Research Desk Order Flow & Session Note
Desk tracking flags bearish displacement on USD/CHF at 0.82610 (+0.80%); the recent CHoCH keeps sellers in control across the Premium regime (0.82260 midpoint). Institutional sellers remain positioned across the 0.83230 -OB supply shelf, while the next structural support rests near 0.81289. With nearby imbalances cleared, the 0.83230 supply block remains the decisive inflection zone. Pre-Market Gameplan: Bias remains toward the 0.83424 downside liquidity pool while price stays capped beneath the 0.82203 invalidation threshold.
Support / Resistance
Support0.81289
Resistance0.83230
Moving Averages
21-day SMA0.82303
50-day SMA0.82354
100-day SMA0.81631
200-day SMA0.80088
Moving Average Trends
EMA 9 < EMA 21 and SMA 20 < SMA 50 — short and medium-term bearish alignment.
Momentum (RSI)
RSI 52.5 — Neutral zone. No strong directional signal.
Bollinger Bands
20-period band. Price 0.82610; midline 0.82353.
Trade Setup
Entry
0.82610
Stop Loss
0.82203
Take Profit
0.83424
Risk / Reward
1:2.0
Neutral
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Research Desk Takeaway
Monitor FX implied volatility term structure and risk-reversal skew for institutional hedging flow direction.
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